FIFA president Gianni Infantino has recently brought up the idea of using algorithms to set football transfer fees, rather than relying on clubs to negotiate prices for players. This concept, which has been circulating for some time, was mentioned at the governing body’s annual law conference in Tokyo. The current global transfer market is valued at over $10 billion annually, making it a topic of great importance within the football community.
Infantino argues that using an algorithm to estimate the fair value of transfer fees could increase transparency within the transfer system. This could be beneficial to all football stakeholders involved in player transfers. By setting a standardized method for determining fees, it could potentially level the playing field and prevent clubs from inflating prices.
However, there are several challenges that would need to be addressed if such a system were to be implemented. Clubs may resist having their selling options limited by a FIFA-approved algorithm. Additionally, it is uncertain how this method would comply with competition laws, especially within the European Union (EU). A recent ruling in the EU’s court of justice regarding the Super League case did not entirely favor football bodies like UEFA and FIFA in terms of their regulatory power.
FIFA has shown interest in a price-setting algorithm since establishing a transfer task force in 2017. However, no concrete proposal has been put forth. The current record for the highest transfer deal stands at €222 million ($241m) when Paris Saint-Germain acquired Neymar from Barcelona. Other high-profile transfers, such as Kylian Mbappé’s move to PSG for approximately €180m ($196m), have followed. The lack of consistency in transfer fees raises questions about the potential effectiveness of an algorithm-based system.
FIFA has been investing in football research units that have been working on a transfer value algorithm since 2010. The research considers various factors, such as a player’s age, length of contract, international record, and the global economic context. Companies like the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) have estimated values exceeding €250m ($272m) for players like Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior, and Manchester City’s Erling Haaland. However, there is a significant discrepancy between these valuations and those provided by popular football industry websites like Transfermarkt.
The idea of using algorithms to set football transfer fees presents both opportunities and challenges for the sport. While it may promote transparency and fairness in the transfer market, there are significant obstacles to overcome in terms of implementation and acceptance by clubs. As the football community continues to evolve, it is essential to consider innovative approaches to address the complexities of player transfers.
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